Psychologists' betting market hints at most reliable research findings

Associate Professor of Psychology Simine Vazire is quoted in Nature.

When psychologists are asked which findings in their field will pass a replication attempt, their predictions prove little better than flipping a coin. But if they play a betting market on the same question, the aggregate results give a fairly good prediction of which studies will hold up if repeated, a prediction experiment suggests.

The market approach might have proved more accurate than the survey because money was on the line, or because the market enables people to learn from others’ biases and to adjust their bets, notes Simine Vazire, a psychology researcher at the University of California, Davis.

Read the full story in Nature.